DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 AM CST SUN DEC 27 2015 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MS...MUCH OF AL...AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK...AND EXTENDING NWD INTO MUCH OF TN AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MAY POSE THE RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. ...SYNOPSIS... A DEEP UPPER LOW PROGGED TO LIE INVOF SERN OK/THE ARKLATEX AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL MOVE QUICKLY NNEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE EJECTION OF THIS LOW WILL BE ASSISTED BY AN UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...AN OCCLUDED LOW ROUGHLY COINCIDENT IN LOCATION WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SIMILARLY NNEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...MID SOUTH/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- AND LIKELY SOME ONGOING SEVERE RISK -- SHOULD BE CROSSING THE MS/NERN AR/WRN TN VICINITY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE MOIST/WEAKLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR DOWNSTREAM WILL SUPPORT CONTINUATION OF THIS CONVECTIVE BAND...WITH SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED/ROTATING STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW CONTINUATION OF THE RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MS AND AL AND INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. ATTM...DIFFICULTY/UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS WITH RESPECT TO DELINEATING THE NRN FRINGE OF POSSIBLE TORNADO RISK. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY NWD/AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST LATER IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY NNEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MORE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DE-COUPLED FROM SUFFICIENT THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT. SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NRN MS/NRN AL/TN VICINITY WILL LIKELY PROVE TO BE A TRANSITION ZONE IN THAT REGARD...WHICH ATTM PRECLUDES MORE SUBSTANTIAL EXPANSION OF SLIGHT RISK FARTHER NWD INTO THESE AREAS. HOWEVER...WITH SHEAR PROFILES EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS -- AND LOW-LEVEL ROTATION -- ACROSS THIS AREA...CLOSE SCRUTINY WILL BE REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS WITH RESPECT HOW FAR NWD CAPE MAY PROVE TO BE MINIMALLY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT APPRECIABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES. ..GOSS.. 12/27/2015Read more
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