MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2020
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 PM CST WED DEC 16 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN MS...SWRN AL...SERN LA...FAR WRN
FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 162250Z - 170115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTMS...SOME STRONG...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD/NEWD
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST AND VICINITY INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH WW
ISSUANCE IS NOT PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMPLIES THE LEADING EDGE OF
ELONGATED FORCING FOR ASCENT IMPINGING UPON AN INLAND-EXTENDING
CORRIDOR OF GULF-MODIFIED MOISTURE PRECEDING A SFC BOUNDARY ANALYZED
FROM JACKSON MS TO BATON ROUGE LA TO THE S-CNTRL LA COAST.
CONVECTION HAS BECOME SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD ALONG AND TO THE E OF
THIS BOUNDARY...AND NEAR/S OF THE NRN EXTENT OF THE RICHER-MARITIME
AIR EXTENDING 50-100 MILES INLAND FROM THE COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE SPREADING EWD/NEWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS CHARACTERIZED
BY STATIC STABILITY WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS CLOUDS E OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. FURTHERMORE...NEUTRAL SFC PRESSURE
TENDENCIES ACROSS THE AREA SUGGEST THAT POLEWARD FLUXES OF UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS WILL BE MODEST -- KEEPING
STRONGER BUOYANCY -- ALBEIT MARGINAL AT MOST -- IN PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST. FINALLY...VWPS SUGGEST THAT DEEP SHEAR IS MODEST -- ON THE
ORDER OF AROUND 30 KT. HOWEVER...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR
PERHAPS A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR WITH ANY SUSTAINED ROTATING
UPDRAFTS OR NEAR INFLECTIONS IN QLCS SEGMENTS.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 12/16/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 29339089 30239054 31648948 32048793 31458715 30298761
28998917 28959040 29339089
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