SPC MD 2021

MD 2021 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EXTREME SERN AL / SWRN GA / N-CNTRL FL PANHANDLE

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2021
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0321 AM CST THU DEC 17 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN AL / SWRN GA / N-CNTRL FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 170921Z - 171115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOW-PROBABILITY RISK FOR A BRIEF/WEAK SUPERCELL TORNADO
OR WIND DAMAGE WILL SEEMINGLY BE CONFINED TO SERN AL AND SWRN GA
OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...KEOX RADAR IMAGERY DURING THE PAST HOUR HAS SHOWN A
WEAK SUPERCELL OVER HENRY CO. AL MOVING INTO SWRN GA.  A MARITIME
WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD ACROSS SERN AL INTO SWRN GA WHILE A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SLOWLY DEVELOPS NEWD INTO S-CNTRL AL EARLY THIS MORNING.
 SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOTABLY TOO COOL/DRY AT THE
SURFACE /I.E. NAM...RAP/ ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA WITH 2
DEG C TEMP/DEWPOINT DISCREPANCIES NOTED.  ADDITIONALLY...UNREALISTIC
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES IMPLIED BY THE RAP SOUNDINGS LEND
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEPICTION OF OBJECTIVELY-ANALYZED THERMODYNAMIC
FIELDS.  WITH THOSE CONCERNS MENTIONED...OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE 
MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS --CHARACTERIZED BY LOW 70S DEWPOINTS-- IS
LOCATED S OF THE MARITIME FRONT AND WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY OF
250 J PER KG IS ESTIMATED.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR A BRIEF/WEAK
TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE SEEMS LIMITED...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN STRONG STORM POTENTIAL.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 12/17/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   30898538 31378533 31948499 32148445 31968423 31288447
            30738489 30898538 

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