SPC MD 2023

MD 2023 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO EWD TO LEWIS AND ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NY

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2023
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CST FRI DEC 18 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE ERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO EWD TO
LEWIS AND ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 190059Z - 190700Z

SUMMARY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDING WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE ERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO EWD TO LEWIS AND
ONEIDA COUNTIES IN NEW YORK. LOCAL SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 2
INCHES PER HOUR.

DISCUSSION...COMPARISON OF THE RECENT 00Z BUF RAOB TO THE 12Z BUF
RAOB FROM THIS MORNING SUGGESTS STRONG COOLING OF THE PROFILE
NEAR/ABOVE 850 MB IN ASSOCIATION WITH COLD ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING A
VORT MAX CROSSING PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. COLD AIR
OVERSPREADING RELATIVELY WARMER LAKE WATERS HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDING OVER PARTS OF WRN NEW YORK E OF LAKE ERIE.
WHILE THIS ACTIVITY OVER/E OF LAKE ERIE CONTINUES EVOLVING INTO MORE
OF A MULTI-BANDED EVENT AS OPPOSED TO A SOLITARY BAND...MOSAIC RADAR
LOOPS SUGGEST THE INITIAL STAGES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDING
BECOMING EVIDENT AT THE E END OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COOLING ALOFT CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD LAKE
ONTARIO...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ORIENTATION MAXIMIZING
OVER-LAKE-ONTARIO FETCH LENGTH...SOLITARY SNOW BANDING WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- PARTICULARLY AFTER 02Z-03Z --
AND CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT LOCATIONS S OF WATERTOWN AND N OF SYRACUSE...AND TO THE
E OF THE ERN LAKE ONTARIO SHORE...WILL EXPERIENCE THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL RATES WITH EVOLVING SNOW BANDING. LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
RELATIVELY MODEST...THOUGH MODIFICATIONS TO THE 00Z BUF RAOB TO
ACCOUNT FOR OVER-LAKE SENSIBLE HEAT FLUXES SUGGEST THAT SHALLOW
BUOYANCY WILL ARISE TO FAVOR SNOWFALL RATES LOCALLY REACHING 2
INCHES PER HOUR BY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES...AS BUOYANCY EXTENDS MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP INTO ICING LAYERS ALOFT FOR CHARGE SEPARATION.

..COHEN.. 12/19/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   43577621 43677617 43697581 43557543 43297534 43257556
            43307632 43427657 43507634 43577621 

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