SPC MD 1

MD 0001 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR COASTAL SOUTHERN CA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0001
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CST WED JAN 06 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SOUTHERN CA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 061732Z - 062030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORM-RELATED WIND
DAMAGE AND A FUNNEL/BRIEF TORNADO RISK IS LIKELY TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN CA AND OFFSHORE AREAS.

DISCUSSION...CONSISTENT WITH MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
LATEST RADAR/LIGHTNING DATA...AN OFFSHORE PLUME OF STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RELATED MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
DEVELOP INLAND ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHERN CA NEAR/BEHIND AN
INLAND-SPREADING FRONTAL BAND. NEAR/BEHIND THE FRONT...DIURNALLY
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEARING 50 F WILL
SUPPORT INCREASINGLY STOUT LOW-TOPPED UPDRAFTS BY AFTERNOON WITH 0-3
KM CAPE REACHING/EXCEEDING 100 J/KG. IN THE PRESENCE OF GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THIS SCENARIO
WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEMI-DISCRETE MINI-SUPERCELLS
AS WELL AS MORE PREVALENT INLAND-SPREADING SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS.
ACCORDINGLY...LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE AND A FUNNEL CLOUD/BRIEF TORNADO
RISK SHOULD INCREASE BY MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON /MOST LIKELY
PEAKING IN THE 19-23Z TIME FRAME/ FOR NEAR-COASTAL/OFFSHORE AREAS OF
SOUTHERN CA.

..GUYER/HART.. 01/06/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGX...LOX...

LAT...LON   34722041 34611960 34391812 33971753 33591725 33041742
            32861852 33261979 34042059 34722041 

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/JxrUPT