SPC MD 12

MD 0012 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SRN ALABAMA/SW GEORGIA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 AM CST SAT JAN 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SRN
ALABAMA/SW GEORGIA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 091603Z - 091800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN NOW AND 18-20Z.  SOME STORMS
MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.  HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY SUCH
ACTIVITY IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REQUIRE A SEVERE WEATHER
WATCH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN APPARENT MINIMAL RISK FOR DAMAGING SURFACE
GUSTS AND TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF CONVECTION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF
COAST/NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO REGION.  THIS GENERALLY COINCIDES
WITH FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF A SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW TURNING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...TOWARD THE MID SOUTH REGION.  HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE AND RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST STORMS...SOME WITH
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...PROBABLY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A 40-50 KT
SOUTHERLY 850 MB SPEED MAXIMUM WHICH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN NOSING
INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY THE 18-20Z TIME
FRAME.  

FROM THE COASTAL WATERS INLAND THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN...THE
POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION REMAINS A
BIT UNCERTAIN.  IT CURRENTLY SEEMS UNLIKELY...BUT IT DOES APPEAR
THAT MOISTENING ABOVE A RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG.  IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST THE RISK FOR
SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS.

..KERR/WEISS.. 01/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   29928795 30468757 31088620 31008497 30018461 29538537
            29748586 29978659 29928795 

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