SPC MD 14

MD 0014 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FLORIDA PENINSULA GULF COAST

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CST SAT JAN 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FLORIDA PENINSULA GULF COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 091941Z - 092045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE SPREADING TOWARD AREAS
NEAR/SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...AND MAY REACH COASTAL AREAS DURING THE
21-23Z TIME FRAME.  AREAL COVERAGE/EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL STILL SEEMS LOW ENOUGH THAT A WATCH PROBABLY IS NOT
NEEDED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY.  SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ARE BEING INCREASED TO A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA IN THE UPCOMING
20Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED
WITHIN AN AREA OF BROAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA GULF COAST.  THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH COASTAL AREAS DURING THE
21-23Z TIME FRAME...BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD INLAND.  

THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDES SEVERAL DISCRETE CELLS...SOME WITH STRONG
MID-LEVEL ROTATION EVIDENT...PERHAPS WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR ALONG AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE TO
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA BAY,  THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH
SUGGESTS THAT MODEST STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW TO
AROUND 30 KT MAY ACCOMPANY THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THIS CONVECTION
THOUGH EARLY EVENING.  IT REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR WHETHER THERE WILL
BE MUCH FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING/DEEPENING ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO COASTAL AREAS.  BUT IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THE
RISK WILL INCREASE FOR SUPERCELLS SPREADING INLAND WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.

..KERR/WEISS.. 01/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

LAT...LON   28348292 28148261 27788230 26968162 26468162 26048212
            26078310 26398370 27808436 28688430 28508324 28348292 

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