SPC MD 17

MD 0017 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN NC /INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS/

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0443 AM CST SUN JAN 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN NC /INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS/

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 101043Z - 101315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND/OR DAMAGING-WIND THREAT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS FAR EASTERN NC INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS THROUGH MID
TO LATE MORNING.  OVERALL FORECAST FOR LOW COVERAGE OF THE
SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A WATCH AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES DURING THE OVERNIGHT INDICATED THE
ENVIRONMENT IN THE WAKE OF THE TSTMS THAT MOVED ACROSS PAMLICO SOUND
AND THE OUTER BANKS BETWEEN 0530-0730Z HAS DESTABILIZED.  VWP DATA
AT MHX AND ILM SHOWED 850-MB AND 700-MB WINDS VEERED TO
SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER STORMS ALLOWING FOR GREATER
THETAE/STEEPER SURFACE TO 3-KM MLCAPE OF 100-150 J/KG TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD FROM OFFSHORE THE SOUTHERN NC COASTAL AREA.  SINCE
0830Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT APPROXIMATELY 30-40 NM OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL SC COAST TO
THE CENTRAL NC COAST. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARED
TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A CONFLUENCE ZONE PER SURFACE STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS...WHILE MINI-SUPERCELLS WERE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE OUTER BANKS IN VICINITY OF THE MARINE FRONT.

50-60-METER 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN NC
THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRACKING INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
APPROACHES THIS REGION.  THIS COMBINED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT
WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING SWLY MID-UPPER-LEVEL JET
SPREADING INTO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VA THIS MORNING
SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 12-15Z.  STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS AS CURRENTLY
OBSERVED OFFSHORE PER RADAR IMAGERY.  INCREASED HODOGRAPH CURVATURE
WILL BE SUSTAINED GIVEN A 40-50-KT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET SUPPORTING A
TORNADO THREAT.  WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE
OF STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS.  THIS AND SPATIOTEMPORAL LIMITS
PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A SEVERE-WEATHER WATCH.  

SEVERAL OF THE CAMS AND LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR SUPPORT THIS
SCENARIO WITH STRONGER UH TRACKS TENDING TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.  BY
14-16...SURFACE TO 800-MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE OF A
WESTERLY COMPONENT WHICH SHOULD REDUCE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE...AND
ALSO EFFECTIVELY SHIFT THE CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE EAST AND
OFFSHORE.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 01/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM...

LAT...LON   33757787 34537749 35557699 36377643 36517577 35917527
            35297538 34797595 34507641 33967723 33687754 33757787 

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