SPC MD 34

MD 0034 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CNTRL MS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0034
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 211703Z - 211830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL FROM AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL HAS
DEVELOPED NW OF JACKSON. THIS THREAT MAY PERSIST WITHIN A RELATIVELY
CONFINED AREA ALONG THE BIG BLACK RIVER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.

DISCUSSION...AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPED OVER WARREN COUNTY MS
AND IS PROGRESSING ALONG THE BIG BLACK RIVER VALLEY. OBSERVATIONAL
ANALYSIS PLACES THIS CELL AROUND 30 MILES N OF THE WARM FRONT
EVIDENT ACROSS CLAIBORNE INTO SRN RANKIN COUNTIES AS OF 17Z. STRONG
CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN 12Z
JAN/LCH RAOBS WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE HAIL RISK WITH THIS STORM.
HOWEVER...THIS CELL WILL PROBABLY WANE IN INTENSITY IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO GIVEN A PREDOMINANT CLUSTER MODE AND WEAKER ELEVATED BUOYANCY
TO THE N/E. A WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY FOR THIS THREAT...BUT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS GREATER
SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION OCCURS ALONG AND S OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR.

..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 01/21/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...

LAT...LON   32609063 32769059 33078995 33158959 33098921 32828920
            32548975 32269029 32119064 32149108 32479107 32609063 

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