SPC MD 6

MD 0006 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND EAST TEXAS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0006
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0306 PM CST FRI JAN 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH AND EAST TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 082106Z - 082330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
AND EAST TEXAS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR HAIL. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE ACCAS BECOMING DENSELY
CONCENTRATED IN AN AREA APPROXIMATELY EXTENDING FROM WACO TX TO
TEMPLE TX...WELL IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX CROSSING THE SRN
ROCKIES. SUBTLE...LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS ARE EMBEDDED IN A
SRN-STREAM SPEED MAX CROSSING PARTS OF TX AND NRN MEXICO DOWNSTREAM
OF THE VORT MAX. THE AFOREMENTIONED ACCAS LIES ON THE WRN EXTENT OF
A PLUME OF MODESTLY RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MARKED BY SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE VORT
MAX WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...AS ALSO MANIFEST IN HIGH-BASED CU EVOLVING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CONCHO VALLEY W OF A DRYLINE/SFC TROUGH EXTENDING S OF A
MESO-LOW ANALYZED NEAR MINERAL WELLS TX. GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OVER THE AREA AS SAMPLED BY THE 12Z FWD RAOB...AND
STRENGTHENING DEEP ASCENT...ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEEPEN
FOR PARCELS ROOTED ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON -- PRIMARILY AFTER 23Z -- MAINLY E OF THE DFW METROPLEX.
THE FWS VWP INDICATES A LONG...STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE-CLOUD LAYER THAT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A FEW INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL. HOWEVER...THE
SVR-HAIL RISK WILL BE LIMITED OVERALL BY THE FOLLOWING FACTORS:
/1/ MUCAPE DAMPENING WITH NWD DISTANCE FROM THE LOWER SABINE VALLEY
AND GULF COAST...
/2/ ANTICIPATION THAT MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION WILL OCCUR S OF THE
MCD AREA STUNTING NWD RETURN OF MOISTER LOW-LEVEL AIR...AND
/3/ POTENTIAL FOR EVENTUALLY SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS
THE MCD AREA TO ENSUE -- PARTICULARLY IN NERN TX -- ACCOMPANIED BY
NUMEROUS CELL-INTERACTIONS LIMITING INDIVIDUAL-UPDRAFT SUSTENANCE.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 01/08/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   30809590 30669662 30839711 31139724 32079710 32939634
            33319545 33219460 32599414 31589477 30809590 

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