SPC MD 8

MD 0008 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 1... FOR EXTREME SERN TX THROUGH SWRN INTO S-CNTRL LA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0952 PM CST FRI JAN 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN TX THROUGH SWRN INTO S-CNTRL LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 1...

VALID 090352Z - 090515Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 1 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEYOND THE 05Z
EXPIRATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 1 OVER PORTIONS OF
SWRN INTO S-CNTRL LA.  AS SUCH...A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
PRIOR TO THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...03Z MESOANALYSIS PLACED A MESOLOW NW OF BPT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING ESEWD TO NEAR LCH THEN TO ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST OF S-CNTRL AND SERN LA.  RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT
TSTMS HAVE TENDED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WELL TO
THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NWRN LA.  HOWEVER...THESE DATA
SHOW SEVERAL INTENSE STORMS WHICH ARE EXHIBITING MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
ROTATION FROM BEAUREGARD AND VERNON PARISHES IN SWRN LA TO THE SHELF
WATERS OFF THE EXTREME SERN TX AND SWRN LA COASTS AS OF 330Z.

WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT COUPLED WITH INCREASED DCVA PRECEDING THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER BROKEN BANDS OF TSTMS
MOVING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN AND EVENTUALLY S-CNTRL LA
OVERNIGHT.  THE GREATEST RISK FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL
AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WILL EXIST ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INLAND.

..MEAD.. 01/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   30649381 30869347 30929298 30479152 30249090 29529037
            29159051 28919065 28969120 29189194 29429288 29599352
            29669373 30059398 30649381 

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