DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 PM CST WED FEB 17 2016 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AND IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND EASTERN GREAT BASIN. ...SYNOPSIS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET STREAK...WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES TOMORROW...LIKELY REACHING THE MID MO VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. LEE TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WITH EVENTUAL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. RESULTING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD ACROSS ND LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ...WEST COAST TO CENTRAL ROCKIES... COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AND RESULTING STEEP LAPSE RATES/ WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY FROM THE CNTRL ORE COAST SWD TO THE CNTRL CA COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS BUT ANY COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES EWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN...A BAND OF STRONGLY FORCED...LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT /CO-LOCATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT/. WINDS IN THE REGION WILL ALREADY BE QUITE STRONG BUT CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT MAY RESULT IN A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE SEVERE CRITERIA. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND STRONG UPDRAFTS. ..MOSIER/GUYER/COOK.. 02/18/2016Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/s7Jkvo
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