DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0738 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN KS/SWRN MO SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN N TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF S TX/THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREAS...FROM MO SWWD ACROSS OK...AND SWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF TEXAS INTO MUCH OF OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND MISSOURI. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES ALSO COULD OCCUR. ...01Z UPDATE... ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE SLIGHT RISK AREAS BOTH ACROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL TX AND FURTHER NORTH FROM NORTHWEST TX INTO MO. THESE CHANGES ARE BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH MAINLY LARGE HAIL /SOME SIG/ EXPECTED. A BRIEF WINDOW OF INCREASED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY EXIST AROUND 01Z-04Z AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR STRENGTHENS WITH DEVELOPING LLJ. THOUGH THIS WILL BE SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL ON STORM MODE...WHICH CURRENTLY IS RATHER MESSY WITH CLUSTERS BEING THE PREDOMINANT MODE THUS FAR. REF MCD 353 FOR MORE DETAILS. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT CONVECTION ONGOING IN THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS WILL GROW UPSCALE DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OK. IF THIS OCCURS THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE WITH A CONTINUED HAIL THREAT. ..LEITMAN.. 04/11/2016Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/rxAC6Z
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