DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHWEST AR...AND NORTHWEST LA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EAST TX AND SOUTHEAST OK TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND EAST TEXAS INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI TODAY AND TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE. ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING EAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. IN SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW...BAND OF STRONG W/SWLY FLOW WILL EXIST FROM NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE TN VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN IL W/SW TO SOUTHWEST OK THIS MORNING...AND SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM NORTHERN AL TO S TX BY TUESDAY MORNING. ...SE OK/E TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL OK AS OF 04Z/MONDAY WILL RESULT IN UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST OK INTO THE ARKLATEX. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD...FROM NEAR THE RED RIVER/NORTHWEST TX TO CENTRAL AR BY 00Z/TUESDAY. THIS FRONT...ALONG WITH ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE ONE FOCUS FOR PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRIPLE POINT AND ALONG THE DRYLINE/MOIST CONFLUENT FLOW OVER EAST TX. HOW MANY STORMS DEVELOP IN THIS SECONDARY REGIME REMAINS UNCERTAIN. WHILE FLOW IN THE LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS WILL BE MODEST /AROUND 20 KT/...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL. ALONG THE COLD FRONT...NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED AND CONVECTIVE MODE MAY BE QUITE MESS WITH A POTENTIAL MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND CLUSTERS. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE EXTENT OF THE TORNADO THREAT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME DUE TO EXPECTED WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS. STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE WEAKER INSTABILITY AND MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED. CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL POSSIBLE. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE NON-ZERO...IT WILL REMAIN CONDITIONAL GIVEN GENERALLY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW. ..LEITMAN/MOSIER.. 04/11/2016Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/s7Jkvo
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