SPC MD 349

MD 0349 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NW TX...WRN-CNTRL AND NRN OK

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0349
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0457 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...WRN-CNTRL AND NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 102157Z - 110000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP FROM NW TX NWD ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL OK INTO NRN OK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING
AS WELL. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE IN PLACE ACROSS
WEST TX WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NWD ACROSS
NW TX INTO SW AND CNTRL OK. THE NWRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
IS LOCATED FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE NEWD INTO NCNTRL OK. SOUTH OF
THIS DIFFUSE MOISTURE GRADIENT...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED
ACROSS NW TX INTO CNTRL OK WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 2000 TO
3000 J/KG RANGE BY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED NEAR A MAX IN INSTABILITY OVER NW TX JUST AHEAD OF A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUALLY
EXPANSION OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FROM SWRN OK INTO CNTRL AND NRN OK
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CELLS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND AS
NEW CELLS INITIATE ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES ALONG THIS CORRIDOR ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE
ACCORDING TO REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS WITH 700 T0 500 MB LAPSE RATES
NEAR 8.0 C/KM. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
DOWNDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...A 40 TO 55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE RED RIVER CENTERED ON WICHITA FALLS THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES FROM NW TX
ACROSS SW OK INTO CNTRL OK RESULTING AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
MAINLY AFTER 02Z.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 04/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   33849830 33549937 34169994 35370003 36199962 36779821
            36899651 36689575 36009597 35739708 35099771 33849830 

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