SPC MD 351

MD 0351 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHEAST KS TO WESTERN/SOUTHERN MO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0351
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0513 PM CDT SUN APR 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHEAST KS TO WESTERN/SOUTHERN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 102213Z - 102345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...INITIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS
INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN MO. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS LIKELY
WITHIN THE HOUR.

DISCUSSION...OWING TO MIXING/DESTABILIZATION AND SHARPENING
CONVERGENCE...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CU FIELD HAS
INCREASED/DEEPENED OVER THE PAST HOUR IN VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHWEST/NORTHEAST-ORIENTED BOUNDARY AND SUBTLE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS INTO WEST-CENTRAL MO. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOW
MODESTLY UNSTABLE /1000-1500 J PER KG MLCAPE/ COINCIDENT WITH
MIDDLE/UPPER 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OF 45-50
KT WILL SUPPORT SOME INITIAL SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE
HAIL...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS A LINEAR
MODE BECOMES INCREASINGLY PROMINENT PRIOR TO BEING UNDERCUT BY THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...A BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MO AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH IS STRONGER.

..GUYER/THOMPSON.. 04/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36729692 37629629 38759269 37749222 37489266 36789426
            35919599 36729692 

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