The Central Alabama sky this morning saw some patchy clouds floating by, but the storms of yesterday afternoon were gone providing some people with a cool down along with a dousing of rain. I had just over a half inch in my rain gauge. But some folks saw the ugly side of summer thunderstorms when they can produce strong downbursts that down trees. The pattern today looks much like what we saw yesterday, so I expect to see the best chances for storms to come along and southwest of a line running roughly from Muscle Shoals in Northwest Alabama to Anniston in East Central Alabama. PW (precipitable water) values were forecast to remain the highest southwest of that line. CAPE values are also going to be highest over the West Central and Southwest portions of Alabama, so additional isolated downbursts will be possible. Looks for highs to again reach the lower 90s. In fact, not much change in highs and lows for the whole week until next weekend.
Beachgoers will see about 7 to 9 hours of sunshine for the Gulf Coast from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores through week ahead with the daily chance of scattered thunderstorms. Highs will be in the 80s on the immediate coast but warmer with lower 90s inland. The sea water temperature at Perdido Pass at Orange Beach was running around 84 degrees. You can find the complete Gulf Coast 7 Day Planner here.
Tropics remain quiet and are expected to remain that was for the next several days. The best location for organized severe weather remained well to our north along the US-Canadian border.
A weakness in the upper level ridge inches closer to Alabama on Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday and Wednesday it will be crossing the Mississippi River and should help to aid afternoon heating with more numerous and widespread thunderstorms. It still means that some spots could stay dry, but it looks like the best rain chances will come Tuesday and Wednesday perhaps extending into early Thursday morning. Highs will remain warm with values from 88 to 92.
Wednesday we begin to watch an upper level trough that is forecast to dig into the eastern US Thursday and Friday. This is expected to bring about a fairly big change to our weather pattern as it carves out a fairly deep trough over the East Coast of the US. By Saturday the upper flow pattern affecting Alabama will be coming out of the north and this should signal a drop in the humidity values as well as temperatures with highs Saturday and Sunday in the middle 80s. Morning lows will be a little nicer, too, with readings dropping back into the 60s. All of these values will be a little below our seasonal values. This change is probably going to be enough to also dry us out and remove the threat of summertime afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
One word of caution on this patter. We’ll need to be watchful for the development of large clusters of thunderstorms in the Central Plains that maintain their strength as the move southeastward in that northwesterly flow. In fact, the GFS hints at that possibility around June 19th. There is no skill in trying to be very specific this far out, but this is something we need to be on guard for.
Looking a little further afield, the upper air pattern goes nearly zonal for much of the US around June 21st. But by Friday, June 24th, into that weekend, the GFS is suggesting another trough for the eastern US while the upper ridge continues to keep the heat on for the western US.
I had a great time yesterday at the big BBQ and community event at Quad Cities Fire Department in eastern Calhoun County. Saw a bunch of folks that I’ve crossed paths with before. Made some new acquaintances including the PIO for the state trooper post in Birmingham. He demonstrated the importance of seat belts with their rollover simulator. So please, buckle up no matter whether it is a trip across the state or just across town.
James Spann will have the next Weather Xtreme Video bright and early on Monday morning. Be watchful of thunderstorms today and heed the danger that lightning presents, but enjoy the day. Godspeed.
-Brian-
from The Alabama Weather Blog http://ift.tt/1Ylc1yN
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