DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0232 AM CDT MON AUG 08 2016 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE DAKOTAS INTO MN... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY AREAS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ERN MT WEDNESDAY THEN INTO NWRN ND AND SCNTRL CANADA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EWD THROUGH SRN ND OR NRN SD INTO CNTRL MN FROM A SFC LOW IN SERN MT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY...BECOMING SITUATED NEAR THE CNTRL ND/SD BORDER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. LEE TROUGH WILL TRAIL THE LOW THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE EJECTING UPPER THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL RESIDE SOUTH OF WARM FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60 TO NEAR 70F BENEATH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING NORTH OF WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY. EVOLUTION OF EARLY ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT TREND MAY BE FOR THESE STORMS TO SHIFT NEWD AND DEEPER INTO THE COOLER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH TIME. TENDENCY FOR DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH EJECTING UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN NW OF WARM SECTOR AND LIKELIHOOD OF SOME CAPPING LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT ALONG WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY. BUT A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ZONE OF DEEPER MIXING NEAR THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WRN SD. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS NRN SD INTO ND WHEN A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL AUGMENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG/NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO SHIFT TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS THE LLJ VEERS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF A FEW ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND BEFORE STORMS GROW UPSCALE. STRONGER STORMS MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING. ..DIAL.. 08/08/2016Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/GAMjPN
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