SPC MD 1490

MD 1490 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL UT...SERN ID...WRN WY...SRN MT

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1490
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL UT...SERN ID...WRN WY...SRN
MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 071739Z - 072015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW SVR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THOUGH A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS SPREADING NEWD/EWD INVOF THE
SERN ID/WRN WY BORDER SWD TO NERN UT. THE ONGOING CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE SPREADING NEWD/EWD INTO A DIURNALLY DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER -- ACROSS NERN UT/WRN WY INTO SRN MT. ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY
EVOLVE FROM BANDING CUMULUS FIELDS W/S OF THE LEAD ACTIVITY FROM
OTHER PARTS OF SERN ID INTO CNTRL UT -- AND THEN SPREAD NEWD/EWD.
THESE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL BE AIDED BY LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT PERIPHERAL TO A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX TRAVERSING THE NRN GREAT
BASIN. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES DIURNALLY DEEPENING AND
MARGINALLY DESTABILIZING...SOME INCREASE IN TSTM INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESENCE OF 25-40 KT OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED CELLS AND SMALL BOWING
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS.
THE PAUCITY OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...ONLY GLANCING NATURE OF
ENHANCED ASCENT...AND MARGINAL DEGREE OF BUOYANCY...WILL
SUBSTANTIALLY MITIGATE SVR POTENTIAL.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 08/07/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...GJT...TFX...SLC...PIH...

LAT...LON   43030868 39930977 39001145 39911238 42941231 45151050
            45720933 45580826 44700805 43030868 

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/OkXn5W