SPC MD 1495

MD 1495 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SRN MT...WY...NERN UT...NWRN CO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1495
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN MT...WY...NERN UT...NWRN CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 072007Z - 072230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED WITHIN THE
PERIPHERY OF A PLUME OF DCVA CROSSING PARTS OF THE NRN/CNTRL GREAT
BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD/ENEWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. GIVEN THE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER THAT HAS EVOLVED IN RESPONSE TO
DIURNAL DIABATIC SFC-LAYER HEATING...AND THE PRESENCE OF 25-40 KT OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR...A FEW SUSTAINED SMALL CELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS
CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE
PAUCITY OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL WY AND RELATED
LIMITED BUOYANCY WILL SUBSTANTIALLY MITIGATE CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY...LIMITING THE OVERALL SVR RISK.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 08/07/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...GJT...SLC...

LAT...LON   40020959 40581064 42911100 44761034 45260750 44910587
            43720525 42150584 40520807 40020959 

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/NiyDxf