DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2016 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF NERN CO...SWRN NEB...AND NWRN KS... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... SCATTERED TSTMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF NERN CO...NWRN KS...AND FAR SWRN NEB WITHIN AXIS OF MID-50S F DEWPOINTS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO TO MID-60S F ACROSS KS/NEB. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ENCOURAGED BY A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE ENTERING SWRN NEB...AND WITH A NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO 40-50 KTS...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MORE WELL-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OR LINE MAY OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH THE LATTER ESPECIALLY THE CASE WHILE STORMS REMAIN MORE DISCRETE. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY LONGER-LIVED/MATURE SUPERCELL...INCLUDING ANY INTERACTION THAT MAY OCCUR WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY POSITIONED ACROSS NERN CO. EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT SHOULD OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS NWRN KS AND FAR SWRN NEB...WITH POTENTIAL FOR EWD PROGRESSION OF SVR POTENTIAL LIMITED BY A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY HIGHER INSTABILITY OVER WRN KS/NEB. ...ND... CONVECTION FAILED TO INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF ND ALONG A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT...AS THE 00Z BIS SOUNDING SHOWED A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 2 KM AGL. A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE LLJ MAY PROMOTE SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. ..ROGERS.. 09/04/2016Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/rxAC6Z
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