MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1823
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0913 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 230313Z - 230515Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO AND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONSOLIDATION INTO AN UPSCALE GROWING CLUSTER
OF STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE DALLAS/FORT
WORTH METROPLEX AFTER 06Z...PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL WHICH COULD REQUIRE A WATCH.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX. THIS
IS OCCURRING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE IN THE
VICINITY OF A 40 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET...IN THE PRESENCE OF
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND 1000+ J/KG OF CAPE (REF 00Z RAOB FROM FWD). THIS
ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO PERSIST...WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING.
TOWARD 05-07Z...IT APPEARS THAT INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...PERHAPS AIDED BY A SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OF THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
REGION...COULD SUPPORT CONSOLIDATING...UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH. IF
THIS OCCURS...MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL COINCIDE WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF A 50-60 KT 500 MB SPEED MAXIMUM ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER IMPULSE.
AND STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS MAY CONTRIBUTE
TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS WITH THE
EVOLVING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.
..KERR/GUYER.. 11/23/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 31999695 33009622 33619537 33319415 32149474 31179559
30589660 30579762 31289759 31999695
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