DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0623 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2016 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF N TX INTO SERN OK... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN TX INTO ERN OK... ...SUMMARY... A RELATIVELY FOCUSED AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...CENTERED ALONG THE RED RIVER. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE WIND AND HAIL. MEANWHILE...THE MARGINAL THREAT OVER NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO WANE THIS EVENING. ...DISCUSSION... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE RED RIVER THIS EVENING...WITH MID 60S F CONFINED TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE REGION SHOW STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY. WITH TIME... TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH... WITH INCREASING LIFT AND SHEAR PROFILES. THE PERSISTENT 50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW FOR MOISTENING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH MUCAPE INCREASING TO AROUND 750 J/KG. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING STORMS FORMING IN THE 06-08Z TIME FRAME ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN OK. WIND PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG...AND ALTHOUGH CAPE PROFILES SUGGEST LOW-TOPPED STORMS WITH OVER 100 KT FLOW AT 400 MB... STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EVENTUALLY EXIST IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER... SUPPORTING ROBUST UPDRAFTS. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO ORIENTATION OF THE STORMS...SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE...SUPPORTING HAIL...ALONG WITH BOWS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INDUCE ROTATION AND SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO AS WELL...CONDITIONAL ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER CIN BEING WEAK ENOUGH. ..JEWELL.. 11/28/2016Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/rxAC6Z
No comments:
Post a Comment