Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Dec 26 2016 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday from portions of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas, eastward to the Carolinas. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A broad, cyclonically curved, midlevel speed maximum will advance east-southeastward from the North-Central States to the Ohio Valley region, within the base of an amplifying trough. In turn, a low-level jet (supporting warm advection) will translate from portions of the southern Plains to the Carolinas. Related isentropic ascent is expected to overlap with the northern extent of weakly modified Gulf moisture. As a result, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to spread eastward from portions of southeast OK and northeast TX to the Carolinas. Long, straight hodographs suggest that a few organized/sustained convective structures may occur, and a few strong storms cannot be ruled out. However, with the strongest ascent forecast to remain well to the north of richer Gulf moisture, buoyancy associated with convective inflow should be marginal, while inflow layers potentially remain elevated. ..Cohen.. 12/26/2016Read more
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