SPC Dec 26, 2016 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 AM CST Mon Dec 26 2016

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
For the upcoming New Year's weekend into early next week,
deterministic/ensemble model consensus is modestly improving
regarding large-scale trough amplification taking place over the
Western and Central States. The attendant low-level mass response
could encourage a warm/moist sector extending inland -- affecting
portions of the South-Central and Southeast States. The overlap of
related buoyancy, and ascent attendant to midlevel waves evolving
within the southwesterly-flow regime, could support some severe-
thunderstorm risk from Day-6/Saturday through Day-8/Monday. However,
appreciable differences among model solutions regarding the
evolution of the synoptic pattern, and especially smaller-scale
developments therein, preclude probabilistic delineations at this
time.

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