Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TX TO FAR SOUTHERN OK... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and tonight across parts of west-central to north-central Texas. A few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail are anticipated. ...Portions of Texas into southern Oklahoma... Mid/late morning water vapor satellite imagery shows an east/northeastward-moving upper low nearing the El Paso/far west TX vicinity. This low will continue northeastward and increasingly take on a negative tilt over the southern High Plains. Ahead of this system, 30-45 kt southerly low-level winds (1-3 km above ground level) will continue to transport a seasonally moist air mass northward, with lower 60s F surface dewpoints expected to reach parts of north-central/northeast TX late today, while some middle 60s F surface dewpoints will reach parts of south-central TX/Hill Country. Persistent low clouds and continued convection to the north of a warm front cast some uncertainty on the exact degree of destabilization later today, particularly with northward extent into north-central TX and far southern OK. Current thinking is that increasingly strong thunderstorms should develop by around mid-afternoon initially across southwest TX in vicinity of the Permian Basin and western Edwards Plateau. The most numerous storms through early evening should occur near the eastward-advancing front across west-central TX. However, sufficient low-level moisture and modest capping may allow for some front-preceding surface-based storms to develop late this afternoon/early evening across the Edwards Plateau/Hill Country vicinities toward the I-35 corridor of north-central Texas. Given that deep-layer/low-level shear will be increasing through early evening, both initial semi-discrete/line-embedded supercells will be possible ahead of an increasingly prominent linear mode near the cold front this evening. Bouts of large hail will be possible especially with initial development across west TX this afternoon, but damaging winds and isolated tornadoes should become the primary risks into this evening across a large part of west-central/north-central TX. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 01/15/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/wWCv9s
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