SPC Jan 15, 2017 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The medium range models including the ECMWF and GFS begin the day 4
to 8 period with an upper-level trough in the Ohio Valley and move
this feature eastward to the mid Atlantic coast on Wednesday/Day 4.
Although there is spread among the solutions, the models suggest
that west to southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the
southeastern United States. Although weak instability is forecast on
Wednesday, thunderstorms could develop across the lower Mississippi
Valley during the day. On Thursday/Day 5, the ECMWF and GFS bring an
upper-level trough into the southern Plains with the ECMWF a bit
faster moving the trough eastward. Thunderstorm development and
possibly a severe threat could take place ahead of the upper-level
trough on Thursday anywhere from the Texas Coastal Plains eastward
into the lower Mississippi Valley depending upon the timing of the
system. On Friday/Day 6, both solutions bring another upper-level
trough in the southern Plains and suggest moisture advection will
occur across parts of the western and central Gulf Coast States.
This would make thunderstorm development again possible on Friday
afternoon from the Texas Coastal Plains eastward into the lower
Mississippi Valley. On Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8, the ECMWF
and GFS both move a strong mid-level jet across northern Mexico. The
exit region of the mid-level jet is forecast to spread across the
Gulf Coast States with the warm sector returning northward into the
region. This would suggest a severe threat would be possible in
parts of the Gulf Coast States each day but uncertainty is
considerable during the latter part of the day 4 to 8 period.

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