Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from the Arklatex region to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Damaging winds, a brief tornado, and small to marginally severe hail are possible on an isolated basis. ...East Texas/Arklatex/middle Mississippi Valley... A closed upper low over KS/northern OK at late morning will continue northeastward and reach the Lake Michigan vicinity by early Tuesday morning. Heights will rise across east TX coincident with a stalling front, while the cold front will remain more eastward progressive across the Ozarks/middle Mississippi River valley. Moderately strong south-southwesterly winds just above the surface will continue to transport a seasonally moist air mass northward, with near 60 F surface dewpoints reaching as far north as Memphis/northeast AR by early evening as air mass modification steadily occurs. Cloud cover may remain semi-prevalent across the warm sector today coincident with weak warm/moist advection amid a confluent pre-frontal regime. Even so, increasing moisture and cloud breaks/pockets of stronger heating could lead to MLCAPE around 500 J/kg this afternoon. As at least some afternoon intensification of updrafts occurs, 35-45 kt of effective shear would support semi-organized updrafts and line segments, potentially capable of marginally severe hail, damaging winds, and/or a brief tornado through the afternoon and evening. Aside from cloud cover, a sub-optimal phasing of large-scale ascent and more prevalent moisture/surface-based instability (to the south) should limit the overall severe risk today. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 01/16/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/wWCv9s
No comments:
Post a Comment