Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible early in the period across the Middle Atlantic while isolated storms may develop from from California into the Four Corners region. ...Middle Atlantic... Strong upper low is expected to lift into the Middle Atlantic region early in the period which should allow modified warm sector to advance into portions of VA by daybreak Monday. Organized severe convection will likely approach VA late in the day2 period as strong forcing encourages convection to spread into the Middle Atlantic ahead of the upper low. However, it's not clear how much buoyancy will exist by day3 along/just south of the warm front due to extensive clouds and aforementioned convective overturning. At this time it appears instability will prove too meager to warrant low severe probs early in the period. ...CA to Four Corners... Another strong mid-level jet is forecast to sag southward across CA before translating inland along the international border during the latter half of the period. Lapse rates are expected to steepen sufficiently north of the jet for weak convection extending from coastal CA into the higher terrain of southwest CO. ..Darrow.. 01/21/2017Read more
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