Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 PM CST Mon Jan 02 2017 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF GEORGIA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this evening and into the overnight hours, mainly across parts of Alabama, Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle. The risk for locally damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will persist with the strongest storms. ...Discussion... A strong/roughly west-to-east baroclinic zone persists from southeast Alabama east across southern Georgia and into eastern South Carolina -- where southerly boundary layer flow advecting warm/moist air northward impinges upon a cool damming airmass being sustained by northerly/northeasterly surface winds. Near and south of this boundary, the high theta-e Gulf airmass is supporting 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE -- which is fueling widespread showers and embedded storms across the area. Convection has shown some decrease in intensity/organization over the past hour or so, as precipitation becomes increasingly widespread. However, with 50 to 60 kt mid-level westerlies to remain across the region atop a strengthening low-level jet, shear supportive of organized/supercell storms will be maintained. Thus, expect occasional/local ramp-ups in storm intensity over the next several hours, which will be accompanied by some risk for locally damaging winds and/or tornadoes. The aforementioned west-to-east front may drift gradually northward overnight -- but will continue to serve as a rough northern limit to the more substantial/surface-based severe risk. Meanwhile, the back edge of the risk area will continue shifting eastward across Alabama, in conjunction with an advancing surface cool front now crossing Mississippi. By the late in the period, isolated severe potential may spread eastward across east-central Georgia and possibly into southern and eastern South Carolina by the end of the period. ..Goss.. 01/03/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/rxAC6Z
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