Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Tue Jan 03 2017 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong thunderstorms could occur this morning across far eastern North Carolina, but the overall severe risk should remain limited today. ...Synopsis... A progressive quasi-zonal large-scale regime will exist over the majority of the CONUS, to the south of an amplifying upper trough over the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. A fast-moving southern-stream trough over the southern Appalachians early this morning will continue east-northeastward toward the mid-Atlantic seaboard, with thunderstorms possible across the coastal Southeast States and north Florida ahead of an advancing cold front. ...Eastern North Carolina... In addition to the aforementioned shortwave trough, a small-scale MCV over eastern NC early this morning has been a factor in focusing convection overnight, although this feature should continue to weaken and steadily push offshore this morning. As consistent with early morning surface observations and the 12Z observed sounding from Morehead City NC, moist maritime air should be relegated to offshore areas and perhaps the immediate coast/Outer Banks. While a strong/severe thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out this morning, any such potential should remain localized and steadily diminish. ...North Florida... Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to occur/regenerate this morning in vicinity of roughly west/east-oriented outflow across north FL and, in a more isolated sense, near the eastward-moving cold front. Deep-layer shear is relatively strong (35-40 kt effective) and a moist/modestly unstable boundary layer will persist near/south of the early-day outflow. However, increasing large-scale subsidence and weakening low-level convergence should temper the potential for severe thunderstorms. ..Guyer/Gleason.. 01/03/2017Read more
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