Saturday, January 7, 2017

SPC Jan 7, 2017 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Sat Jan 07 2017

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few weak thunderstorms are possible Sunday across parts of central
California, as well as late Sunday night along the Pacific Northwest
Coast.

...Synopsis...
A small change with the southern extent of the general thunderstorm
area has been made across a portion of central CA, as guidance
suggests destabilization does not become sufficient to support
thunderstorm development on Sunday.  Otherwise, no changes have been
made to the rest of the Day 2 Outlook.

The mid- to upper-level flow pattern across the contiguous U.S.
today is expected to become less amplified Sunday through Sunday
night as a large-scale trough moves off the East Coast.  Meanwhile,
500-mb height falls are expected across the western states, as a
large closed low, currently located west of the British Columbia and
Pacific Northwest Coast per water-vapor imagery, and associated
trough begin to move inland.  A series of midlevel impulses will
spread northeast into the western U.S., with one more prominent
trough expected to move through CA into the Great Basin Sunday
night.

...Central and northern CA...
Elevated instability attendant to lower-tropospheric warm air
advection regime will likely be ongoing at 12Z Sunday with
continuation for these elevated thunderstorms to occur into Sunday
morning and perhaps Sunday afternoon ahead of the approaching
shortwave trough.  Additional lightning strikes will be possible
Sunday night, given forcing for ascent occurs with the inland-moving
shortwave trough and cooling temperatures aloft steepen lapse rates.

...Portions of Pacific Northwest Coast...
Cooling 500-mb temperatures attendant to the arrival of the leading
portion of the closed low will steepen lapse rates to support
sufficient destabilization for a few lightning strikes late Sunday
night.

..Peters.. 01/07/2017

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from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/ws9HZn

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