SPC MD 106

MD 0106 CONCERNING OUTLOOK UPGRADE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH FL...SOUTHERN GA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN AL

Mesoscale Discussion 0106
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0534 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Areas affected...Portions of north FL...southern GA...and extreme
southeastern AL

Concerning...Outlook upgrade 

Valid 221134Z - 221300Z

SUMMARY...The 13Z Day-1 Convective Outlook will be upgraded to High
Risk for tornadoes -- some strong and long-track -- expected later
today.

DISCUSSION...Anomalously rich low-level moisture observed along the
eastern/central Gulf Coast, combined with a maintained influx of
steep midlevel lapse rates based on the 06Z Slidell LA sounding, and
the approach of a powerful midlevel cyclone from the southern Great
Plains, all suggest increasing confidence that severe thunderstorms
capable of producing strong, long-track tornadoes will be possible
with discrete supercell thunderstorms later today. Following
coordination with the affected National Weather Service Weather
Forecast Offices, an upgrade to High Risk will occur for the 13Z
Day-1 Convective Outlook. Additional meteorological details will be
provided within the forthcoming outlook discussion.

..Cohen/Thompson.. 01/22/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   29988054 29368150 28528346 28908506 29528569 30518578
            31028563 31628514 32598328 32688202 32438136 31438054
            29988054 

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