Mesoscale Discussion 0108
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017
Areas affected...Southern AL and the western FL Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 221343Z - 221545Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A new tornado watch will be coordinated shortly for an
expected increase in the severe-weather threat across southern
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle this morning.
DISCUSSION...Observational data (including lightning trends, mosaic
radar imagery, satellite imagery and surface observations) indicated
thunderstorm development was underway from extreme southeast
Louisiana to just south of the central Gulf Coast into the central
Florida Panhandle. Surface pressure continues to fall from
southeast Louisiana into southeast Mississippi, where cyclogenesis
is expected this morning. A warm front extended east across far
southern Alabama, marking the northward extent of a moisture-rich
environment with surface dew points in the upper 60s to around 70 F.
As deep-layer ascent with the approaching shortwave trough spreads
across the central Gulf Coast region, storms will continue to
develop within a moderately unstable and strongly sheared regime. An
increase in low-level shear will support a threat for a few
tornadoes, damaging winds and large hail.
..Peters/Thompson.. 01/22/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 31898737 32068515 30998520 30158517 29778531 30168645
30138794 30218808 30878816 31758821 31898737
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/xwsTsc
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