SPC MD 111

MD 0111 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA

Mesoscale Discussion 0111
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0941 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Areas affected...Portions of central GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 221541Z - 221715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Convection spreading northward through parts of central GA
may pose large-hail potential through the morning hours. Watch
issuance is unlikely in the short term, but the severe risk will
increase later today when Watches will be required.

DISCUSSION...Positive theta-e advection in the low levels, beneath
increasing deep ascent, will continue to foster northward-spreading
convection through the late morning hours. Effective inflow layers
will likely remain slightly elevated in the short-term. Regardless,
the near-8 C/km 700-500-mb lapse rate and 70 kt of effective shear
indicated by the Atlanta 12Z sounding suggest that semi-organized
convection with robust updraft cores may produce isolated severe
hail. Later today, additional destabilization and strengthening deep
ascent will support increasing severe potential.

..Cohen/Hart.. 01/22/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...

LAT...LON   32088453 32618488 33458459 33658368 33478276 33098260
            32168286 32088453 

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