Mesoscale Discussion 0115
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017
Areas affected...central FL panhandle into southwest GA
Concerning...Tornado Watch 21...
Valid 221836Z - 221930Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 21 continues.
SUMMARY...Semi-discrete cells will continue to track northeast
across the central FL panhandle into southwest GA the next few
hours. Environmental conditions have been improving into early
afternoon, and tornadoes, damaging winds and hail will be possible
with these storms.
DISCUSSION...A line of semi-discrete supercells offshore of Bay
County FL will quickly track northeast. Radar data from EVX
indicates moderate low to mid level rotation with these cells, which
will move onshore soon. 18z RAOB from TLH shows a favorable
supercell environment with steep lapse rates and strong shear in
place. Furthermore, a combination of 18z mesoanalysis data with RAOB
and VWP data indicate 0-1km SRH values have continued to increase
from around 200 m2/s2 just a couple of hours ago, to over 400 m2/s2
currently. Surface observations in this area have continued to
improve with northward extent into southwest GA where temperatures
have warmed into the 70s and dewpoints have climbed into the upper
60s to near 70 under broken cloudiness. The environmental parameter
space will continue to support a threat for strong tornadoes, with
the greatest threat over the next few hours. Additional intense
cells from Walton County FL to Dale County GA also will be entering
this more favorable environment soon and an increase in organization
and strength is possible.
..Leitman.. 01/22/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...
LAT...LON 29908603 30638576 31068536 31208485 31098421 30888387
30358387 29798412 29518435 29248486 29258523 29378559
29908603
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/w1Hk1j
No comments:
Post a Comment