Mesoscale Discussion 0119
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017
Areas affected...portions of southeast GA and southern SC
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 222102Z - 222230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Intense storms will track northeast from south-central GA
into parts of southeast GA and southern SC over the next several
hours. Strong, damaging winds, tornadoes and some hail will be
possible. A tornado watch will likely be needed soon.
DISCUSSION...A line of intense storms is currently tracking
northeast across south central GA at about 50 kt. This will bring
this line of cells into the MCD area around 23z. There is some
uncertainty with regards to how far north a greater severe/tornado
threat will extend given limited heating and ample rainfall across
this area today. However...some broken cloudiness across parts of
southeast GA into southwest SC has allowed for some airmass recovery
with temperatures and dewpoints rebounding at least a couple of
degrees over the last hour or two. Additionally, low level shear
profiles will improve this evening as the upper shortwave impulse
continues to eject east-northeast and as the surface low moves
across northern GA. Furthermore, hi-res guidance continues to
indicate that a small wedge of the better warm sector airmass will
extend into parts of the southern Savannah River valley this
evening. This should continue to foster a threat for strong,
damaging wind in addition to tornadoes. A watch will likely be
needed soon for the area.
..Leitman/Hart.. 01/22/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...
LAT...LON 31248134 31398163 31808218 32448244 32948226 33258198
33588114 33708050 33627995 33507978 33067933 32657971
31828089 31248134
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/zaDw99
No comments:
Post a Comment