Mesoscale Discussion 0122
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017
Areas affected...Portions of coastal central CA eastward toward
parts of the Central Valley of CA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 222143Z - 222345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A few strong thunderstorms may affect the area through the
afternoon and into the evening hours. Watch issuance is not
anticipated.
DISCUSSION...As the exit region of an intense midlevel speed maximum
continues approaching the coast, cooling aloft will continue during
the next several hours. Related destabilization has already
contributed to offshore thunderstorm development, with this activity
forecast to spread toward the coast and onshore through the late
afternoon and evening hours -- perhaps affecting the San Francisco
Bay Area. Other occasionally strong storms could affect portions of
the Central Valley of CA, where visible satellite loops indicate
cloud breaks permitting insolation. Despite very marginal buoyancy,
strong deep shear may support a few sustained convective elements
capable of small hail and locally strong wind gusts. While an
isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, buoyancy is
expected to be too minimal for a more substantial severe risk.
..Cohen/Hart.. 01/22/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...MTR...
LAT...LON 37222232 38252279 39102180 38262111 36992089 36262106
36022182 37222232
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