SPC MD 19

MD 0019 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO

Mesoscale Discussion 0019
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0612 PM CST Thu Jan 05 2017

Areas affected...south central Colorado through north central and
northeast New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 060012Z - 060515Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow bands should become more widespread
over southern Colorado into northern New Mexico. Snowfall rates
should increase to over 1 inch per hour with greater rates over the
higher terrain.

DISCUSSION...Early this evening, radar data show a frontogenetic
band with moderate to heavy snow shifting southward through southern
Colorado. Meanwhile, an area of high pressure centered over the
central plains will continue developing slowly south tonight and
maintain an upslope component, especially over the mountains of
northern Mexico. RAP analysis indicates an upper jet streak over the
southwest U.S. which will continue east into the southern Rockies
tonight. Forcing for ascent attending this feature in conjunction
pre-existing frontogenetic band will promote heavy snow from
southern Colorado into northern Mexico, especially over the higher
terrain where snowfall rates will be locally enhanced by orographic
forcing. In addition, mid-level lapse rates up to 7 C/km in the
presence of increasing deep ascent is sufficient for weak
instability and convective enhancement, mainly over the mountains
where isolated lightning strikes have already been observed.

..Dial/Grams.. 01/06/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...

LAT...LON   34390525 35510619 37100686 37830475 36590354 34980391
            34390525 

Read more

from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/yL2R0P