SPC MD 24

MD 0024 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE NORTHWEST FL COASTAL AREAS

Mesoscale Discussion 0024
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 PM CST Fri Jan 06 2017

Areas affected...the northwest FL coastal areas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 070508Z - 070715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms approaching the northwest FL coastal area
will pose a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and a tornado. A
ww issuance will probably not be needed at this time unless
convective trends dictate otherwise.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have increased in coverage and intensity
over the northeast Gulf just offshore of the northwest FL coast.
Some of the storms have evolved into supercells, are moving
northeast at around 30 kt, and will move onshore near 06Z. The
low-level jet has increased, and dewpoints have risen to the mid 60s
F. Storms are developing in response to isentropic ascent associated
with a strengthening low-level jet interacting with a warm front
that is draped across the central FL peninsula. Instability remains
marginal with MLCAPE aob 500 J/kg, but dewpoints increasing through
the mid 60S F will support storms rooted near the surface with
effective storm relative helicity from 250-350 m2/s2 along with 45+
kt effective bulk shear. The marginal thermodynamic environment
remains a limiting factor, especially with inland extent from the
coast. However, this environment will support at least a marginal
risk for damaging wind and a tornado next few hours as storms move
onshore.

..Dial/Grams.. 01/07/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   29728347 30078324 30008255 29448203 28688197 28168205
            27658266 28408272 28838268 29418314 29728347 

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