SPC MD 26

MD 0026 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 6... FOR WESTERN FL PENINSULA

Mesoscale Discussion 0026
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 AM CST Sat Jan 07 2017

Areas affected...Western FL Peninsula

Concerning...Tornado Watch 6...

Valid 070858Z - 071030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 6 continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for strong wind gusts and a brief tornado will
continue across the western FL peninsula for the next one to two
hours. A downstream watch is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis placed the cold front just
north of CTY northeastward to just north of JAX. Airmass ahead of
the front is characterized by temperatures in mid 60s to mid 70s and
dewpoints generally in the mid 60s, with some isolated low 70s in
the coastal areas around TBW. As a result, the airmass continues to
support modest instability and the latest mesoanalysis suggest
MLCAPE around 500 to 1000 J/KG. Convection continues to develop
within the confluent flow ahead of the front and several of these
cells exhibited rotation while offshore. Thus far, these cells have
weakened as they progress inland, into an environment with more CINH
and less theta-e. Even so, increasing large-scale forcing for ascent
will result in slightly cooler mid-level temperatures with the
resulting reduction in MLCINH favoring a less hostile airmass. Some
increased moisture advection is also possible as the low-level flow
veers in response to the surface low deepening off the northeast
FL/southeast GA coast. However, this more veered flow will result in
a less favorable low-level shear. Nevertheless, the persistence of
the strong wind fields coupled with these more favorable
thermodynamics will result in a continue threat for damaging wind
gusts and/or a brief tornado for the next hour or two. 

The limited spatial extent of the favorable thermodynamics and
persistently more veered low-level flow will likely keep the threat
confined to the coastal areas and a downstream watch into the
central FL peninsula is not currently anticipated.

..Mosier.. 01/07/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   28508364 29348346 29668293 29488238 28648195 27138185
            26658251 26978303 28508364 

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