Mesoscale Discussion 0030
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CST Mon Jan 09 2017
Areas affected...Coastal CA/OR border area
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 092249Z - 100015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind gust might occur as a narrow line
of storms likely reaches the coast between 00-01Z.
DISCUSSION...Leading edge of a narrow short-line segment is around
60 miles west of ACV. Recent movement of this line has been at about
40 kt to the east-northeast. Extrapolation suggests this should
reach the far northern CA/southern OR coast just after 00Z.
Substantial veering and strengthening of winds with height per BHX
VWP data is yielding a rather enlarged hodograph with 0-3 km shear
near 50 kt. This should support weak, broad updraft rotation amid
scant buoyancy with MLCAPE only around 100 J/kg. This might result
in a severe wind gust accompanying the convection as it reaches the
coast, but activity should quickly wane over the Siskiyou/Klamath
ranges.
..Grams/Broyles.. 01/09/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFR...EKA...
LAT...LON 42122443 42212396 41952382 41352380 40892405 40982441
42122443
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