Mesoscale Discussion 0041
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017
Areas affected...parts of east-central MO...south-central and
central IL...west-central and central IN
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 140814Z - 141415Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates 0.05-0.10 inch per 3 hours are
forecast during the late overnight across the middle MS Valley and
this morning over parts of the Wabash Valley.
DISCUSSION...Radar imagery at 08 UTC shows widely scattered showers
across the middle MS Valley within a moderately strong belt of
west-southwesterly flow in the 1-3 km AGL layer. Surface analysis
indicates temperatures are at or below freezing from portions of
southeastern MO and extending to the northeast across south-central
IL and into southern IN. The freezing line is forecast to be
quasi-stationary during the next 6 hours. Above the near-surface
layer, temperatures are around 8 deg C at 850 mb--resulting in a
thermal profile supportive of freezing rain. Host of deterministic
model and short-term ensemble guidance suggests showers will
gradually increase in coverage and rates will slowly intensify
within a corridor from near St. Louis over the next several hours
and move eastward along the IL/IN I-70 corridor towards Indianapolis
by this morning. Freezing rain rates of 0.05-0.10 inch per 3 hours
are forecast in areas, especially where the showers exhibit some
convective characteristics and locally augment rates.
..Smith.. 01/14/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...
LAT...LON 38569211 39799152 40158745 40088625 39738595 39238608
38528903 37439002 37189074 37439169 38569211
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/z5ZoeV
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