Mesoscale Discussion 0051
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0943 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017
Areas affected...Portions of southwest/south-central KS...northwest
OK...the OK Panhandle...southeast CO
Concerning...Freezing rain
Valid 151543Z - 151945Z
SUMMARY...Freezing rain showers and forecast to be spreading
northward and northeastward through the afternoon hours.
DISCUSSION...Modest pressure falls analyzed over the central High
Plains toward the TX Panhandle reflect the elevated warm-advection
pattern in place, well to the northeast of an upper low south of El
Paso TX. The continued eastward/northeastward progression of the
upper low and related low-level mass response will encourage an
increase in ascent during the next several hours.
Ongoing precipitation is spreading northeastward across the area,
with additional convection (including lightning) developing from
eastern NM into West TX. As the latter activity spreads
northward/northeastward through the day, and sub-freezing
surface-layer conditions are maintained, the risk for freezing rain
will exist through the afternoon. Freezing-rain rates of 0.03-0.06
inch per hour are anticipated. Localized higher rates could
accompany the strongest convective elements -- supported by weak
elevated CAPE (sampled by the 12Z Amarillo sounding).
The most likely area of persistent freezing rain is expected to
affect eastern parts of the OK Panhandle northeastward into parts of
southwest and south-central KS, though surface wet-bulb temperatures
may only be marginally sub-freezing in some areas. Farther west,
into southeastern CO and vicinity, somewhat colder profiles aloft
may occasionally support sleet.
..Cohen.. 01/15/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 39029995 38709783 37709786 36969862 36420006 36560234
37350252 38290200 38880101 39029995
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