Mesoscale Discussion 0059 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0501 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017 Areas affected...portions of southeast TX and the upper TX coastal plain Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 161101Z - 161130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A small spatiotemporal window for isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms will likely be confined from areas west through northwest of the greater Houston metro as storms move eastward through a moist axis. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery during the past 2-3 hours has shown transient circulations with the more intense updrafts as a discontinuous convective band moves eastward across east and southeast TX. Strong wind fields are in place ---reference the KHGX VAD--- and 200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH is analyzed by objective analysis. Despite the weak instability, the strong shear and ample forcing for ascent are at least promoting some weak storm-scale organization. Nonetheless, the storms are moving through a narrowing wedge of richer low-level moisture and significant poleward moisture return into the lower Sabine Valley will likely not occur before the convective band moves through this region. As a result, the strong-storm threat will likely decrease substantially once storms' move through the moist sector. While a brief/weak tornado or pocket of wind damage cannot be ruled out, it seems the coverage of any severe risk will likely remain low and preclude the need for a watch given the limiting factors discussed above. ..Smith/Grams.. 01/16/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX... LAT...LON 29259653 30689589 30649534 29459497 29259653Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/ygYDJ5
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