SPC MD 68

MD 0068 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR TEXAS GULF COAST

Mesoscale Discussion 0068
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Areas affected...Texas Gulf Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 180749Z - 180915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms are possible early this morning
along portions of the Texas Gulf Coast.  While a brief tornado or
damaging gust cannot be ruled out, a watch is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong thunderstorms is currently
affecting portions of Wharton, Fort Bend, and Harris counties TX. 
These storms appear to be along a well-defined quasi-stationary
surface boundary.  South of the boundary, moist and marginally
unstable surface conditions are present with dewpoints near 70F. 
Modifying forecast soundings for these parameters would indicate an
environment minimally favorable for rotating storms capable of gusty
winds or a brief tornado.  Recent trends in surface observations
suggest there may be a weak mesolow to the southwest of these
storms, which would potentially enhance the low level shear and lift
for the next few hours.  While severe weather is possible, the risk
appears rather low and a watch is not currently anticipated.

..Hart/Peters.. 01/18/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...

LAT...LON   29819663 30699579 30799531 30569481 30099471 29259592
            29029643 29369676 29819663 

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