Mesoscale Discussion 0071
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017
Areas affected...central Louisiana through southwest Mississippi
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 190006Z - 190200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Threat for a couple of instances of damaging wind and
perhaps a brief tornado will persist through about 02Z. Overall
threat is too marginal for a WW issuance.
DISCUSSION...Early this evening a quasi-stationary front stretches
from south AL through southern MS, central LA, to a weak surface low
in southeast TX. A cold front extends from the low through far
southeast TX and the northwest Gulf. Latest objective analysis shows
the warm sector is only marginally unstable with MLCAPE near or
below 500 J/kg in the presence of weak lapse rates. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue developing in vicinity of the
quasi-stationary front next 2-3 hours. However, overall tendency
should be for storms to begin a gradual, but temporary decrease
through mid evening within zone of weakening forcing for ascent in
wake of low-amplitude shortwave trough moving northeast through the
lower MS Valley. In the meantime, vertical wind profiles with
effective bulk shear from 30-35 kt and modest 0-1 km hodograph size
remain sufficient for a few bowing segments and marginal supercell
structures, especially as storms interact with the stationary front.
..Dial/Edwards.. 01/19/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 31929042 31649169 31059313 31529294 32229182 32449063
31929042
Read morefrom SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/yV9Xwe
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