SPC MD 82

MD 0082 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS

Mesoscale Discussion 0082
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1007 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Areas affected...Portions of southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 210407Z - 210600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will move east across the
discussion area this evening into the overnight hours. A couple of
these storms may reach severe limits, with the potential for large
hail. However, any instances of large hail should remain sparse
enough to preclude watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have re-developed across southeast Texas
late this evening, in response to increasing large-scale ascent (and
related mid-level cooling) along the leading edge of an impulse
transiting east towards the Gulf Coast. While drying aloft will
eventually shift the thunderstorm threat eastward into Louisiana,
these cells are developing along the leading edge of a plume of
steeper lapse rates aloft. With strong southwesterly mid/upper flow
positioned over the region, effective shear on the order of 40-45
kts is sufficient for organization of more robust updrafts rooted
above the cool/stable surface layer. As such, the strongest cells
may be capable of a few large hail reports over the next several
hours, before the activity moves east into Tornado Watch 9. Despite
this potential, however, increasing MUCIN (with the aforementioned
drying aloft) should keep the severe threat localized enough to
preclude watch issuance.

..Picca/Edwards.. 01/21/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON   29869619 30679580 30899519 31049404 31009375 30749362
            29879431 29349477 28649587 28569630 29209634 29869619 

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