SPC MD 86

MD 0086 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE

Mesoscale Discussion 0086
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Areas affected...Central/southern Alabama and the western Florida
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 210900Z - 211030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large
hail will spread east-northeastward into Alabama and the western
Florida Panhandle through sunrise.  A tornado watch will likely be
needed by 10z.

DISCUSSION...The ongoing convective cluster and an associated
mesolow in southeast LA/southwest MS will continue to develop/move
northeastward toward AL, in association with an ejecting midlevel
trough (see MCD 0085 for additional information in MS/LA for tornado
watch 10).  A strengthening southerly low-level jet will likewise
develop toward AL and enhance the northward transport of low-level
moisture.  With at least weak buoyancy rooted at or very near the
surface, increasing low-level shear with the approach of the mesolow
will support an expansion of the tornado risk from MS into AL
through the morning.  Thus, a tornado watch will likely be needed by
10z as the initial warm advection storms slowly increase over
southwest AL, and the mesolow approaches the MS/AL state line by
12z.

..Thompson.. 01/21/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   31618535 30928590 30538617 30418789 30618828 31738836
            32788831 33308761 33788621 33738557 33308532 32338511
            31618535 

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