Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Tue Feb 14 2017 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TX INTO THE FL PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN MS/AL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to track from southeast Texas across southern Louisiana this afternoon, with a few tornadoes and damaging winds possible. Isolated severe storms will also be possible tonight from the mouth of the Mississippi River into the Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast TX into the FL Panhandle... A line of strong to severe storms is ongoing this morning over southeast TX. The latest surface analysis shows mid 60s surface dewpoints over southern LA, with strong southerly low level winds helping to transport that moisture northward. Broken cloud cover and strengthening shear profiles will result in an environment conditionally favorable for severe storms across much of southern LA and into southern MS later this afternoon. The main forecast uncertainty involves the coverage of thunderstorms. Model guidance differs considerably on that issue, with low level forcing mechanisms weakening with time. Nevertheless, the mesoscale organization of the MCS over TX, coupled with some daytime heating and a relatively weak capping inversion, suggest sufficient risk of thunderstorms to expand the SLGT risk into parts of southern MS and more of LA. Later tonight, there remains a risk of isolated strong to severe storms affecting the coastal areas of AL/FL Panhandle. Please refer to the previous discussion for further details on this area. ..Hart/Mosier.. 02/14/2017Read more
from SPC Forecast Products http://ift.tt/wWCv9s
No comments:
Post a Comment